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Posted by Nemo in "Opening Bell: 8.19.08" Tuesday, August 19, 2008 9:52 AM

Actually, Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite at Intrade, with a bid/ask of 30/40.

https://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=607635

Posted by Nemo in "Take A Load Off Fannie: Treasury Rescue Coming This Weekend?" Friday, September 5, 2008 6:34 PM

New issuance of preferred shares, backstopped by bazooka, with holders of the existing preferred given an option to participate proportional to their holding. New preferred placed on equal footing with existing to avoid clobbering the regional banks.

No explicit guarantee for the bonds, because the implicit one is enough.

Common shareholders have seen their last dividend.

Posted by Nemo in "Price of Merrill Declines As Bank Of America Share Sink" Monday, September 15, 2008 10:56 AM

Huh? If you think BofA is overpriced, you short BAC at this point, not MER.

A significant spread vs. the announced ratio implies one and only one thing: The market is pricing in a significant chance the deal does not close as announced. (Otherwise, there would be a straight-up long MER + short BAC arb.)

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